FORECASTING APPROACH TO PLANNING OF MANAGEMENT ACTIONS AIMED ON CHANGES IN REGULATORY POLICY

Abstract

The aim of the research is to develop a prognostic approach to planning management actions aimed at changing regulatory policy. The essence and basic approaches to the definition of the «change management» concept are investigated. It is proposed to consider change management in the context of the regulatory policy of national economy development. The role of forecasting in the development of socio-economic processes of the country, individual sectors of the economy, etc. is investigated. A prognostic approach to management planning has been developed as a cyclical management planning process aimed at changes in regulatory policy, as well as the essence of its stages. The proposed approach is based on a combination of trend and correlation-regression analysis and allows to establish the optimal values which will achieve the maximum possible values ​​of aggregated development indices by sectors and to develop on this basis corresponding measures and tasks in a particular area of ​​the national economy. This approach also helps to estimate the implementation of forecast results, identifying the reasons for the deviation of the actual effect of the changes from the planned. It is established that the basis for planning changes in the regulatory policy of the national economy and the necessary condition for their implementation is the use of optimization. In addition, in the process of optimizing changes in regulatory policy, it is proposed to take into account the differentiation of domains of the national economy depending on the need to accelerate development and changes in regulation, the definition of aggregated indices of development and generalized indices of regulatory policy, as well as the model of dependence between them.