HYBRID MODEL OF STRATEGIC PUBLIC FINANCE PLANNING FOR UKRAINE UNDER POST-WAR RECOVERY: GPR-SENSITIVITY AND INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY

Abstract

The article develops a hybrid model of strategic public finance planning for Ukraine oriented toward post-war reconstruction under structurally elevated geopolitical risk. The analysis demonstrates that reconstruction cannot be treated as a standalone rebuilding program; it must be embedded in a medium-term fiscal-structural strategy integrating defense capability, debt sustainability, institutional transparency, and productive investment. A comparative analysis of three international support mechanisms – the EU Ukraine Facility, the Recovery and Resilience Facility, and the IMF Extended Fund Facility – reveals structural differences in scope, conditionality, flexibility, and integration with European accession requirements. The Ukraine Plan encompasses approximately 130 reform conditions across 15 sectors, carrying a notable risk of reform overload during active hostilities. The proposed hybrid model combines two interconnected components: a short-term security core focused on air defense, the defense-industrial complex, critical infrastructure, and cybersecurity; and longer-term resilience investments covering energy, digitalization, human capital, and green modernization. The key innovation is integrating GPR-sensitivity – a scenario-based planning framework for high-, medium-, and low-geopolitical-risk environments – which enables adaptive expenditure prioritization while safeguarding macrofinancial stability. Institutional capacity, transparent public procurement, and effective anti-corruption oversight are identified as essential preconditions for model implementation. Ukraine's positioning within the European security architecture, including access to the SAFE instrument, is examined as a structural element of the reconstruction financing framework. Ultimately, strategic public finance planning must function not merely as a budgetary tool, but as an integrated system managing geopolitical risk and supporting long-term economic sovereignty.