METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO ASSESSING THE MOBILIZATION EFFECT OF MILITARY RISKS INSURANCE AND INTERNATIONAL GUARANTEES AS KEY FACTORS OF SUSTAINABILITY OF FINANCING THE RENEWABLE ENERGY SECTOR OF UKRAINE

Abstract

The full-scale war launched against Ukraine in 2022 fundamentally transformed the financial architecture of the country’s renewable energy sector. Infrastructure destruction, capacity losses in temporarily occupied territories, monetary tightening, and the collapse of conventional debt financing channels rendered traditional market mechanisms insufficient for sustaining the energy transition. Consequently, war-risk insurance instruments and international guarantees have emerged as the primary financial technologies enabling continued capital mobilization into the sector. 
This paper establishes a comprehensive four-group typology of war-risk mitigation (WRM) instruments: direct sovereign and political risk guarantees; credit guarantees provided by development finance institutions; blended-finance arrangements with donor-funded first-loss tranches; and pure grant instruments. The article proposes an analytical framework for measuring the mobilization (leverage) effect of each group, integrating the resulting WRM sub-index into a composite Renewable Energy Financing Index (REFI). 
Empirical benchmarking against international data indicates that blended-finance structures with first-loss layers achieve mobilization ratios of 3.5–6.0 times the donor outlay, compared to 1.5–2.5 times for direct sovereign guarantees and 2.5–4.0 times for development finance institution credit guarantees. Decomposing the sub-index evaluates the structural shift of Ukraine’s renewable energy financing model from market-based tariff incentives toward an institutionally guaranteed paradigm. Ultimately, this approach offers a robust analytical tool for designing post-war recovery policy, calibrating international donor programs, and assessing public guarantee schemes under conditions of elevated political risk.