MEDIUM-TERM BUDGET PLANNING IN UKRAINE

  • Olha Demianchuk
Keywords: medium-term budget planning, budget resolution, medium-term management of public finances

Abstract

The article reveals peculiarities of medium-term budget planning in Ukraine. The author analyzes the first stage of this process implementation which started in 2010. The main disadvantages and features are identified, including the imperfection of budget forecasting, which leads to a significant deviation of the actual and planned indicators, and as a consequence to the non-compliance with the planned budget revenue figures regarding the amount of expenditures. Also, the author analyzes in detail the current stage of medium-term budget planning, which is being implemented in the course of budget reforms. The factors which caused the complexity of this process implementation are determined as well. In 2017 the adoption of a number of legislative documents, at first glance, revived this process, but the adoption of the most important draft law on amendments to the Budget Code didn’t take place. The aim of the study is to determine the main characteristics of the medium-term budget planning process in Ukraine. Ukraine is currently in the early stages of medium-term budget planning implementing (MTBP). In comparison with other European Union countries, based on their methodology for assessing the system of the MTBP, the implementation of the Budget Resolution for 2018-2020 can be estimated only at 0.23 from a maximum of 1.0. This means that the budget process in Ukraine, as well as the filling and quality of the budget resolution, meet the European criteria for qualitative medium-term planning by only 23%, which is the main characteristic of the domestic MTBP.
The second characteristic is that only about 65% of the general government sector expenditures undergo the medium-term budget planning, while in most EU countries this figure is over 90%. Third, the medium-term budgetary strategy foresees a very wide range of priority tasks for budget policy, but most of them are not quantified.
For successful further implementation of the MTBP, it is necessary that the budget strategy is developed on the basis of sectoral development programs. They should have clear qualitative and quantitative performance parameters, as well as a financial justification stating the sources of funding. Under the condition of of the MTBP improvement each stakeholder of this process will have its own benefits, albeit with risks.

Published
2018-11-06