TOTAL GOVERNMENT STATE DEBT OF UKRAINE: THREATS AND CONSEQUENCES

Abstract

Realities of the contemporary world confirm the importance of external borrowings, In the case of Ukraine the meaning of external debt is quite special, despite the increasing volumes and, correspondingly, threats and complex consequences.
The Aim of this article is to identify the government-guaranteed debt growth threats on social development and to substantiate theoretical approaches to decrease these threats. The main research method systemic allows to explore complex unbalanced systems, which Ukraine now is. The article reveals the specificity of the formation and maintenance of the state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine. The author provides the analysis of the debt dynamics and the cost of its services in relation to GDP in Ukraine and selected countries of the world. The author develops specific recommendations for the debt service, discovers public threats in the political, economic and social spheres. Provided the excess in the Maastricht criteria comparing 2014, , which provides for the top face relative to percent of debt to GDP not over 60, forms a significant dependence on the creditors, including the default, in an unstable and weak economy has a certain probability. A comparison of this criterion with Japan, Italy and other countries is incorrect, despite the economic power of these countries and a significant difference in social functioning. Also a permanent intervention of the major creditors, particularly the IMF on the direction of reforms, including in the social sphere, not always adequately reflects the Ukrainian reality and invokes the correspondent social disturbance.
The author implements a public debt forecast for both pessimistic probability and the optimal scenarios. The results of the study confirm the feasibility of priority development of the economy in order to reduce the debt burden. The implementation of this important task is a prerequisite for the reduction of threats and negative effects of public debt permanent growth.