MODELING ECONOMIC RISKS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOCIO-POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY ON GLOBAL TRADE FLOWS

Abstract

International trade plays a crucial role in economic growth, facilitating integration into new markets, access to advanced technologies, and the procurement of essential resources. It also promotes specialization and enables countries to capitalize on their comparative advantages more effectively. However, global trade flows remain highly sensitive to external shocks such as economic crises, political transformations, and the emergence of new trade barriers.
This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the influence of economic and political uncertainty on the dynamics of global trade flows. It identifies key risk factors that shape the development of international trade. The research applies a combination of Vector Autoregression (VAR) modeling, Monte Carlo simulation, and network analysis to thoroughly model the relevant processes. The findings indicate that rising economic uncertainty significantly hampers international trade volumes, introducing additional constraints on trade expansion.
Scenario modeling was used to assess potential risks and to develop adaptive strategies aimed at mitigating the adverse effects of such uncertainty. These strategies underscore the necessity of both proactive and reactive measures to uphold trade stability during periods of turbulence. The results emphasize the critical role of political variables in shaping effective trade strategies.
In conclusion, the study highlights the imperative of integrating political considerations into trade policy formulation to enhance resilience against external risks. A balanced approach that accounts for both economic and socio-political uncertainties is essential for sustaining the stability and long-term growth of global trade, particularly in an increasingly volatile geopolitical environment.