A DECADE OF WAR: THE STATE AND PROSPECTS OF UKRAINE'S ECONOMIC GROWTH

Abstract

This article analyzes the fundamental macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine from 2014 to 2024, including real and nominal GDP, unemployment rates, public debt, and the prevalence of the shadow economy. The research investigates foreign economic activity, foreign direct investment, and structural shifts within the banking sector over the past decade. It identifies the primary factors driving GDP fluctuations and highlights the systemic risks associated with escalating public debt and shadow economic activity.
A central thesis of the study is the strategic necessity of transforming Ukraine from an agrarian-based economy into a high-tech industrial nation focusing on mechanical engineering, aerospace, and metallurgy. The authors substantiate the need for deep industrialization and the development of powerful human capital to ensure long-term growth and European integration. Furthermore, the investigation identifies critical imbalances in the labor market, specifically the mismatch between educational output and market demand, and notes the concerning reduction in the number of medium-sized enterprises.
Finally, the research outlines comprehensive prospects for post-war recovery. Key areas for development include maintaining financial stability through cooperation with the IMF, attracting international grants, and restoring critical energy and transport infrastructure. Improving the export structure by increasing the share of high value-added goods and fostering public-private partnerships are presented as essential mechanisms for building a resilient, sustainable economy. These findings provide a strategic foundation for navigating the challenges of martial law and achieving economic rebirth.