STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF UNEMPLOYMENT IN UKRAINE

Abstract

One of the most serious problems of the economic development of modern Ukrainian society is an imbalance in the functioning of the national labor market, especially of the employment sphere. An important indicator of socio-economic instability in the field of labor relations is unemployment, which in recent years has become tangible again and has begun to grow. The relevance of the study is determined by the need for a comprehensive analysis of the components of the labor market in Ukraine and the identification of trends in its development with the help of economic and mathematical modeling. The article presents the retrospective analysis of registered unemployment in Ukraine and investigates its causes and factors affecting the dynamics of unemployment. It is shown that in recent years there has been a decrease in the proportion of registered unemployed in the total number of unemployed population. This indicates that there are negative trends in the labor market, as it points to several unsolved social problems. It is noted that the number of unemployed registered in the State Statistics Service of Ukraine in the last nineteen years has decreased to almost twice as much as the unemployed population of Ukraine according to the methodology of the ILO during the similar period, and the reasons of this phenomenon are indicated. An analysis of the trends of registered unemployment in the context of gender segregation and place of residence is conducted. An analysis of the dynamics of the number of registered unemployed for eleven years by the method of seasonal decomposition has been made. The analysis showed that the change in the value of the number of registered unemployed has a clearly defined seasonal character and a downward trend. With the help of the Box-Jenkins method, the forecast for the time series of the monthly change of the number of registered unemployed and the confidence interval for the projected values are made. According to the forecast, the tendency of a decline in the number of registered unemployed will continue in the next year, provided that the current factors affecting unemployment and the relationship between them remain unchanged, but it is not an indicator of an improvement of the labor market.