INVESTIGATION OF AGRICULTURAL COMPLEX STABILITY

Abstract

The economic processes that evolve over time can be studied on the basis of linear and nonlinear dynamic models. This article analyzes the economic and mathematical models of Lotka-Volterra type for an agrarian enterprise, which combines crop and livestock subsystems.

Ukraine is an agrarian state. Crop production and animal husbandry are the main directions of the agricultural business. Crop production in Ukraine has more attractive prospects for investors due to the intensive development of the grain industry in the export direction. Concurrently, livestock production is not sufficiently supported by the state and falls down. The problem of achieving economic sustainability of agrarian enterprises of the combined type is relevant.

In the presented research, it was investigated which factors affect the economic stability of such complex. They are taken into account when constructing the model. The crop production and livestock subsystems interaction in the agrarian enterprise is considered as a competition. Both subsystems evolve due to their own returns. In addition, the crop production sector receives income from the livestock industry in the form of free organic fertilizers, while giving it free feed. The mathematical model is constructed as a system of two differential equations that relates to models of «predator-victim» type. The dynamics of this system is unstable, but accounting for the stabilizing effect of the livestock subsystem on crop production allowed to ensure the stability of the model. Thus, accounting for the synergistic interaction of the two subsystems allows the agrarian enterprise to achieve economic stability.

This study will be useful for investors in the agrarian sector.