ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION IN UKRAINE

Abstract

Population and quality of life is one of the most important determinants of the formation of the country's labor force, stable functioning of the labor market, the formation of gross national income. Demographic trends during Ukraine's independence have become persistently negative, significantly worsened the main demographic characteristics of the country, which is expressed in low life expectancy, low birth rate, aging population, rising mortality (especially in working age), intensification of migration processes etc. Demographic problems are prerequisites for many socio-economic, cultural, political and other aspects of the country's development, so they require constant monitoring and analysis, including the use of methods of economic and mathematical modeling. The purpose of the article is to study the demographic situation in Ukraine using statistical and correlation-regression analysis. The main trends of the demographic situation in Ukraine are studied in the article: the dynamics of the permanent population, the distribution of the permanent population of Ukraine by age groups, the number of live births and deaths in Ukraine for 1990-2021. The main reasons for the deteriorating demographic situation in the country, such as economic, social, financial instability in the country, the difficult military-political situation, external migration and others are identified. A correlation-regression model of the influence of socio-economic factors on the current population of Ukraine has been built. It is determined that the development of industry has the greatest positive impact on the dynamics of the current population, and the number of people admitted to higher education the greatest negative impact. The directions of the state policy aimed at regulating demographic processes in the country are given.