KEY DETERMINANTS OF THE PUBLIC DEBT MARKET STATE OF UKRAINE IN THE PRE-WAR PERIOD

Abstract

Balance on the public debt market is a guarantee of the stability of public finances. The state of public debt and the country's debt security depend on the efficiency of the public debt market of any country. When determining the key determinants of the debt market state, indicators that take into account the macroeconomic conditions of the borrowing country should be taken into account. Therefore, the article focuses on relative indicators. In addition, it is worth taking into account not only the indicators contained in domestic regulations, but also international recommendations. Usually, international standards characterizing debt security are quite high. Compliance with such indicators is primarily important for countries with emerging markets, to which Ukraine belongs. And for highly developed countries, the key is compliance with solvency, not indicators and norms related to the size of the debt and its components.
The key determinants of the Ukraine's public debt market state in the pre-war period were the definition and assessment of the following indicators: the ratio of state and guaranteed state debt to gross domestic product, the share of debt in foreign currency, the share of guaranteed debt, the share of external debt, the ratio of gross external debt to GDP and the ratio of official international reserves to external debt, an indicator of the ratio of debt repayment expenditures in relation to general budget expenditures, as well as the ratio of debt service expenditures in budget expenditures.
All the analyzed indicators illustrate a permanent excess of the permissible norms, which are substantiated by scientists and recommended by international financial institutions. The high debt burden on the budget and the economy as a whole, caused by the State debt accumulated over the years, is extremely negative. The high level of expenses for maintenance and debt payment makes it necessary to reduce the total expenses of the state, which affects social or other components, or forces to expand fiscal sources and increase fiscal pressure.