ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UKRAINIAN STOCK MARKET UNDER MACROECONOMIC INSTABILITY

Abstract

This article examines the Ukrainian stock market’s current state and development prospects under macroeconomic instability. The study is driven by the capital market’s growing role in supporting investment activity, mobilizing financial resources, and facilitating wartime economic recovery. Particular attention is devoted to monetary factors influencing market performance, including the National Bank of Ukraine’s key policy rate, domestic government bond (OVDP) yields, and exchange trading structures.
The purpose of the study is to assess the stock market, determine the impact of macroeconomic factors, and forecast medium-term capital market trends. The methodological framework combines analysis, synthesis, statistical comparison, indicator normalization, integrated assessment, and scenario forecasting.
The study analyzes exchange trading dynamics, financial instrument structures, market liquidity, and key segment performance during 2021–2025. Based on quantitative indicators, an integrated stock market development index was constructed to comprehensively evaluate market performance under wartime conditions. The findings indicate that monetary policy significantly influences stock market development, particularly affecting the attractiveness of government securities and resource allocation across market segments.
Scenario forecasting suggests that future market development will largely depend on monetary policy parameters, macroeconomic stability, and economic recovery rates. The study substantiates the need to diversify financial instruments, strengthen the corporate segment, and improve liquidity as key prerequisites for the sustainable development of Ukraine’s capital market.