METACOGNITIVE MECHANISMS AND RESOURCE PREDICTORS OF POST-TRAUMATIC GROWTH DYNAMICS IN UNIVERSITY STUDENTS DURING THE WAR

Abstract

The article presents the comprehensive findings of a four-year longitudinal study (2022–2025) investigating the dynamics and internal psychological determinants of post-traumatic growth (PTG) among university students in the context of the ongoing full-scale war in Ukraine. The research architecture is based on a multi-stage approach, combining broad-scale monitoring of general trends (N=474) with an in-depth analysis of a specialized target group (n=59). To assess the internal factors of transformation, the study utilized the Post-Traumatic Growth Inventory (PTGI), the Metacognitions Questionnaire (MCQ-30), and the BASIC Ph multi-dimensional resilience model.
The longitudinal data revealed a non-linear and fluctuating trajectory of personal transformation. A significant peak in PTG indices was recorded in 2023 (growth rate +12.35%), reflecting a phase of primary mobilization and intensive searching for meaning. However, the subsequent transition to an "adaptation plateau" and a statistically significant decline by 2025 (-12.45%) indicates the gradual depletion of primary adaptive resources and the onset of chronic psychological fatigue under prolonged warfare.
A multiple regression model (Enter method) was constructed for the target group to identify the predictive weight of metacognitive beliefs and resource-based factors. The model proved to be statistically significant (F(6,52)=2.298,p=0.048), explaining 21% of the PTG variance (R2=0.210). The results identified the total score of metacognitive beliefs (MCQ-30) as the sole significant predictor (β=−0.379,p=0.038), demonstrating a profound negative impact on personal growth. This confirms that dysfunctional metacognitive monitoring and negative beliefs about worry act as substantial internal barriers, interfering with the constructive processing of traumatic experiences.
Furthermore, the analysis revealed a notable discrepancy between resource popularity and their predictive efficiency. Although descriptive data indicated the dominance of cognitive and imaginative channels in students' daily coping profiles, the regression model proved that these frequently used strategies – along with all other resource dimensions of the BASIC Ph model – lack independent predictive power for achieving PTG. This suggests that the presence of psychological resources alone is insufficient for positive transformation if high levels of dysfunctional metacognitive beliefs remain unaddressed. The diagnostics of collinearity (VIF < 2.088) confirmed the stability of the model. These findings emphasize the necessity of shifting psychological support paradigms for youth from general resource-building to targeted interventions specifically addressing metacognitive barriers to growth.