WAR AND AUTHORITARIANISM: THE REQUEST FOR A «STRONG HAND» IN UKRAINE DURING THE CONDITIONS OF WAR

Abstract

The article analyzed the dynamics of public opinion regarding the demand for a «strong hand» in Ukraine and the likelihood of the country’s slide into authoritarianism. Taking as a theoretical basis the hypothesis that during socio-political crises, authoritarian attitudes grow in society, a correlation analysis was conducted to test it. It was found that periods of crisis affect the fact that Ukrainians begin to rally around the institutions of power, which in turn leads to an increase in the level of trust on the part of citizens and, in connection with this, the demand for a «strong hand» increases. The analysis of factors that could indicate the growth of authoritarian attitudes among the population also showed that there are no social grounds for the establishment of authoritarianism in Ukraine. In particular, during a full-scale invasion, the priority of freedom over security increased. At the same time, growth increased both in comparison with pre-war indicators and in comparison with 2022 and 2023. Similarly, the priority of freedom over equality also increased. However, the assessment of Ukrainians regarding the perception of influence on the course of their lives has decreased somewhat, and the level of xenophobia has also increased. At the same time, despite the lack of social grounds for establishing authoritarianism, the tendencies on the part of the authorities are opposite. In particular, in the conditions of a full-scale war, the government’s control over the power structures increased, the subjectivity of the parliament decreased, and the full power ended up in the hands of the President’s Office. However, other factors that act as safeguards against Ukraine’s slide into authoritarianism have remained unchanged. Therefore, although the actions of the authorities look threatening, there are no social grounds for establishing authoritarianism in Ukraine.